Everyday life beyond Earth.
02 / Delivering · Scenario model
A settlement needs cargo. A launch fleet also has to deliver the propellant that gets it there.
Explore how launch capacity, refueling overhead, and payload affect annual lunar deliveries. This simplified throughput model uses editable assumptions, not a mission schedule or a forecast.
Compare annualized lunar throughput with fleet-wide launch infrastructure. Adjust the scenario, then inspect the assumptions below. Refueling input: T (tankers per campaign).
For example, a shared depot. Zero excludes support overhead.
Illustrative LOX/CH₄ split: 78%/22%. Oxygen power excludes orbital export. Presets are scenarios, not forecasts.
| T | Landings / yr | Surface cargo (t/yr) | Tanker flights / yr | Total flights used |
|---|
The model assumes every campaign delivers its stated payload successfully. Annualized throughput can include fractional campaigns; the whole-mission figure floors the available campaign budget. Real schedules also depend on launch windows, vehicle availability, transfer losses, and downtime.
Campaign launches = tankers + one cargo launch + allocated support launches. Support overhead can represent a depot shared across several campaigns; it is an accounting assumption, not a detailed architecture. NASA's HLS architecture includes a depot and tanker launches, but this generic cargo model does not reproduce an HLS mission. NASA HLS audit.
Earth propellant totals use the assumed loaded mass per launch. Oxygen power is annual production energy divided by 8,760 hours; it excludes storage, delivery to orbit, and generation capacity needed during downtime. The original 4,600 t/launch and 24.3 kWh/kg values are retained as editable scenario defaults, not universal constants.
Original preset names—Baseline-2030s, Fleet-Expansion, Aggressive-2040s, and Aspirational-24/day—are retained here as historical labels. Their values are exploratory scenarios, not dated predictions.
Continue exploring: cheaper delivery changes which goods a settlement should make. Compare importing with local production →